Why Frankel will stay further

Stride-pattern analysis lends credence to Tom Queally’s belief that his mount idled in front – as opposed to being tired – in the St James’s Palace Stakes

The array of technical information which Frankel produced in the St James’s Palace Stakes suggested a different conclusion to that generally drawn. Take a deep breath: it gives weight to the post-race testimony of his jockey Tom Queally which was cynically dismissed.

Frankel’s amazing burst in the middle of the Royal Ascot Group 1, together with the subsequent close finish, led many to conclude that Queally had forced his mount to the point of exhaustion too soon in the race. Some even said that Frankel ran like a seven-furlong horse. I think neither of these things is true.

Coming into the race, the concern was that the 2,000 Guineas winner would pull hard, but he actually settled very well in the first two furlongs.

Queally’s decision to extricate him from a position on the rails soon after this point looked a reasonable tactical ploy. But then the rider started pumping his hands and asking Frankel to accelerate – usually a reckless ploy on the uphill stretch of the Old Mile running out of Swinley Bottom.

Put to his best stride, Frankel unleashed the kind of breathtaking speed which makes him such a force: after a tepid first quarter-mile of 26.6sec, he ran the next three furlongs, on the incline, in a staggering 34.3sec, getting away from the pack with a fourth furlong touching 11sec. And the ground was less than firm, too.

At Newmarket, Frankel had distributed his energy in a similar fashion. He had run more on freshness, though allowed the rope to do so by Queally. His second quarter there was 22sec flat, smashing up the Classic field but leading to subsequent fractions of 24sec and 26.3sec which first suggested that he was tiring, despite the six-length win.

But the course for the St James’s Palace Stakes is much stiffer than that for the 2,000 Guineas – on average, it takes a horse 4.5sec longer to cover the same distance at Ascot than Newmarket. So this time any similar deceleration would be potentially more dangerous.

Frankel ran the final three furlongs at Ascot in 38.3sec, or 4sec slower than the previous three; he finished with a final furlong of nearly 14sec. Coupled with the visual impression of the pack closing him down, it seemed to add up to the horse tiring badly. Not only this, but some even added another layer of interpretation, asserting that Queally had panicked at the thought of his mount getting boxed in.

That Queally said Frankel was idling was breezily dismissed. He was clearly trying to exonerate himself, the world-weary said.

Frankel’s average stride frequency was reducing, from 137 strides per minute to 130, but his average stride length was not

While the sectional times prove conclusively that Frankel ran much faster in the middle part of the race than at the end, they do not prove why. There is no doubt his expansive burst would have been costly, but another technical measure – stride-pattern analysis – lends support to what Queally said.

Frankel took 30 strides to cover the penultimate furlong in 13.1sec, after which he held a four-length cushion over nearest pursuer Excelebration. But, though he could muster a final furlong of only 13.8sec, allowing the strong-finishing Zoffany to close to three-quarters of a length, he again used 30 strides.

In other words, Frankel’s average stride frequency was reducing, from 137 strides per minute to 130, but his average stride length was not: 22 feet per stride from the two-pole to the furlong-marker and the same home. (These measurements are subject to a tolerance imposed by the limitations of the human eye.)

A tired horse usually shortens its stride. This is some function of reduced muscle efficiency, though it is also linked to respiration: like many four-legged mammals, it takes exactly one breath per stride. So shorter strides, or more strides per second, provide more oxygen.

As Frankel galloped up the straight, his average stride-length in each of the last two furlongs was constant and his stride frequency was actually decreasing. This isn’t the usual pattern with tired horses, but it may be some evidence that he was doing exactly what his jockey said he was doing: resisting the instruction to keep going – idling, in other words.

This is important not just for academic purposes or for interest. Frankel is bred to stay at least a mile and a quarter. And I think the evidence suggests he will do exactly that. I think his stride-pattern tells you he was tiring no more than could be reasonably expected and that he just shut it down in the straight, perhaps losing concentration, perhaps intimidated by the gaudy surroundings, perhaps a little wilfully too.

This is one of the most exciting horses of the last 20 years. If he were mine, he would go for his owner’s Juddmonte International at York over a mile and a quarter. This time, however, I would make sure he gets a lead.

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